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Donald Trump’s Conviction: A Game-Changer for the 2024 Race?
Donald J. Trump’s conviction on nearly three dozen felony counts plunges the country into unmapped political terrain, a rare moment that could reshuffle a 2024 race that for months has been locked in stasis and defined by a polarizing former president.
The Unprecedented Conviction
- The conviction of a former president raises constitutional, electoral, and logistical questions
- Trump can still run for office as a felon
- The verdict may not shift public opinion of Trump
New Challenges for Trump
Now he must move through the rituals of an American presidential campaign as a criminal. It will amount to a high-pressure stress test, not only of Mr. Trump but of America’s political traditions, legal institutions, and ability to hold an election under some of the greatest partisan strains in decades — if not since the Civil War.
Facing Biden and the Future
The country will watch as Mr. Trump argues with President Biden over his criminal record next month at their first debate, in addition to sparring over the economy, foreign policy, immigration, and abortion rights.
The Aftermath of the Verdict
Soon after will come the unlikeliest of split screens: The sentencing on July 11, when Mr. Trump will learn whether he faces probation or up to four years in prison, is one week before he is set to formally accept his party’s presidential nomination in Milwaukee. The appeal process will play out at the same time as advertising blitzes in battleground states.
Trump’s Defiant Stance
- Trump vows to fight through the election
- Claims of being a “political prisoner”
- Reactions from Biden and supporters
The Public Response
Most Republicans — some of whom had traveled to New York in a show of courthouse solidarity — denounced the case and its outcome.
Republican Reactions to Trump’s Conviction
The Pushback
Despite all the public displays of rage and consternation, a memo by Mr. Trump’s pollsters argued that the conviction would have little impact on the race because voters had already formed their views on the trial and the former president’s actions. The issue, they wrote, is “baked into the cake.”
Doubts and Concerns
A jury conviction is substantially more serious than an indictment or even the congressional proceedings that turned Mr. Trump into the first American president to be impeached twice. And some Democrats believe the verdict could break through to voters by November.
The Road Ahead for Trump and Biden
A Game-Changing Verdict?
The scale of the political impact, said Geoff Garin, a pollster for the Biden campaign, may depend on how the tempestuous Mr. Trump reacts in the coming days and weeks.
Looking Towards the Future
Yet in some ways, strategists affiliated with both campaigns also acknowledged that they were operating blind, with no historical parallels to draw upon.
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