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Presiding over a period of severe crisis in Moscow’s relations with the West, Vladimir Putin was inaugurated for another six-year term as Russian president on Tuesday. Amid the grandeur of a traditional Kremlin ceremony, Putin praised his fellow Russians as a “united and great nation” and vowed to prioritize Russia’s interests and security above all else. Ending his speech on a confident note, the Russian leader asserted: “Together we will overcome all obstacles. We will fulfill everything we have planned. Together we will win.”
In contrast, DNI Avril Haines, the top US intelligence official, informed the Senate Armed Services Committee last week that the Russia-Ukraine war is likely to persist. She suggested that Putin’s aggressive tactics would continue, notwithstanding recent Congressional approval of a fresh multibillion-dollar military aid package for Ukraine to help it counter Russian aggression. The question of Putin’s intentions and next actions loom large.
Considering Russia’s force posture, the state of its military and economy, and declared strategic objectives and threat perceptions, geopolitical experts have outlined several foreseeable actions on Putin’s part. A major counteroffensive campaign in northeastern Ukraine is highly likely to be initiated by Russian forces, possibly launching in the aftermath of the Victory Day Parade, a national holiday celebrating Russia’s defeat of Nazi Germany in WWII. Russian efforts to capitalize on Ukraine’s shortages in manpower, combat hardware, and ammunition could potentially break through the front lines by or during this summer.
To facilitate this, Moscow is amassing an additional 100,000 troops for deployment on the front lines. This aligns with Putin’s December 2021 decree directing the Ministry of Defense to augment the armed forces by 170,000 personnel, thereby reaching a maximum strength of 1.3 million servicemen. Additionally, Russia’s defense spending for 2024 is projected to soar by nearly 70% compared to 2023.
Putin, though confident in the momentum swinging in Russia’s favor due to Ukraine’s military disadvantages, is likely apprehensive about French President Emmanuel Macron’s insinuation of potential troop deployment to Ukraine in the event of a Russian breakthrough of the front lines.
In order to deter NATO from deploying forces into the theater, Russia plans to conduct military exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons, a strategic signaling aimed at urging leaders in Washington and NATO commanders to avoid meddling in what Russia considers its strategic security perimeter, of which Ukraine is a part.
During his inauguration speech, Putin expressed gratitude to the “citizens of Russia in all regions of our country, residents of our historical lands who defended the right to be together with the Motherland.” This most likely refers to Ukrainians living in regions annexed by Moscow. Putin maintains that Russia has a rightful claim to Ukraine as the latter’s statehood originated from “Kievan Rus,” the region currently occupied by modern Ukraine.
According to an independent Russian polling agency, the Levada Center, 77% of Russians support their military’s actions in Ukraine, effectively aligning with Putin’s stance. Notably, the same percentage of Russians believe that Russia will emerge victorious from the war.
As a second point, it is likely that Russian intelligence services will escalate their hunt for Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with the intention to assassinate him. Over the weekend, the Russian government added Zelenskyy to its list of wanted criminals, justified under a criminal code article by the Russian Interior Ministry. Zelenskyy has been a target since the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022 and has survived several assassination attempts. Following the disruption of a recent Russian covert operation reportedly aimed at infiltrating Zelenskyy’s security team and capturing or killing him, it is expected that Russia’s efforts to eliminate Zelenskyy will heighten on or after May 20, when his presidential term officially ends. This also follows Zelenskyy’s decision to cancel the 2024 presidential election last November, arguing that Ukraine must focus its resources on fighting Russia, a move which Moscow labeled as illegitimate.
Lastly, Russia is likely to amplify its non-kinetic confrontation with Washington. While Russia is aware of the danger of a direct war with the U.S. and NATO due to their conventional weapons superiority, it perceives the potential erosion of its strategic buffer zone, relied upon for security for centuries, as an even more significant risk. This fear has been compounded by Washington’s ongoing support to Ukraine. Moscow views a future direct engagement with U.S.-Russia as “inevitable” based on the long-standing U.S. policy seeking to democratize Russia’s post-Soviet neighbors in Eurasia and Washington’s stated intentions to accept Ukraine into NATO.
The 2024 Annual Threat assessment reveals that “Russia almost certainly does not want a direct military conflict with U.S. and NATO forces and will continue asymmetric activity below what it calculates to be the threshold of military conflict globally.”
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