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Many Republicans may be surprised to learn that Election Day 2024 occurs much sooner than November 5. Focusing solely on this date could potentially harm the Republican cause, as well as the elections of Donald Trump and House and Senate Republicans.
The first election dates are set on September 16 in Pennsylvania, followed swiftly by September 20 in Minnesota and South Dakota. Soon after, elections will be held on September 23 in Mississippi, and September 24 in Missouri. 43 other states and the District of Columbia have their own early voting dates, with the exception of Alabama and New Hampshire, which do not have early voting.
Here is how this could affect the Republican campaigns. In 2022, the Republican Senate campaign in Pennsylvania was mainly centered on the November Election Day and did not commence advertising until early voting had already begun. Consequently, 40% of Pennsylvanians cast their ballots before the first major Republican advertisement had aired.
This trend is not peculiar to that race. Republicans historically have struggled to mobilize voters early, leading to two major issues. Firstly, Republican turnout on Election Day must be significantly higher to compensate for the number of Democratic votes already in the ballot box. Secondly, it means Republican candidates have had less time to target low propensity voters – those who are least likely to turnout.
Democrats have prioritized early voting, as it allows them to identify those who haven’t voted yet, and subsequently engage them through phone calls, direct mail, and text reminders to vote. This long-drawn campaign approach has proven over the last decade to be more effective in winning close elections than focusing on just the official Election Day.
Shifting Republicans from their fixation on Election Day – and their reluctance to vote early – is an enormous task. It will necessitate a focused, determined, and enthusiastic effort. For instance, despite all talk about “Bank the Vote,” it didn’t have a discernible impact on the special election for New York’s 3rd District. Republicans lost early voting decisively and simply couldn’t make up for this on Election Day.
Changing this trend and encouraging early voting will require a new commitment to win the vote throughout the campaign. As suggested by my friend and former U.S. Ambassador to Luxembourg Randy Evans, Republicans should commence with a focus on “winning day one of voting.”
Evans elaborates: “This means identifying the first day of voting of every kind in each State and D.C… set as an objective to win the voting on that day with commitments by Republican voters to show up and win beginning on day one.”
Such approach will significantly increase the chances of Republican victories in 2024. Now is the time to instill change.
Newt Gingrich was Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1995-1999 and a candidate for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. He is chairman of Gingrich 360.
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