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The New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College conducted a set of polls between April 28 to May 9, 2024, interviewing 4,097 registered voters. The polls employed a methodology that included telephone interviews conducted both in English and Spanish.
To ensure the representativeness of the polled samples, nearly 500,000 calls were made to about 410,000 voters drawn from a database containing demographic details of all registered voters. The aim was to reach the right mix of voters reflecting party affiliations, race, and regional distribution.
To avoid bias towards those willing to participate, extra weight was accorded to demographic groups that are usually under-represented, such as individuals without a college degree.
The poll’s cumulative margin of error was ± 1.8 percentage points for registered voters. However, there were variations in individual state polls’ margins of error from ± 3.6 points in Pennsylvania to ± 4.6 points in Georgia.
More detailed information about the methodology, the weighting process, and participant demographics can be seen at the bottom of the page under “Composition of the Sample.” The page also offers an option to explore answers to frequently asked questions and submit new ones.
The individual state polls were conducted using the same method in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada.
In Pennsylvania, the poll was overseen by the Lenfest Institute for Journalism and offered a detailed examination of voters in the Philadelphia suburbs.
The sample underwent various levels of weighting to ensure a proper reflection of the attributes of the entire state and to avoid a bias towards the oversampled Philadelphia suburbs.
The detailed methodology and results, along with its margin of error, reflect the continuous effort to provide accurate and reliable poll statistics.
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