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About Our Approach to Polling Averages
We maintain a standard for our polling averages which incorporate data compiled not only by The New York Times but also by FiveThirtyEight. Certain adjustments are made for estimates which hinge on multiple factors. These include the age and population of a poll, the inclusion of probable voters, as well as any changes in other polls since a particular survey was conducted.
Consideration for Pollsters
Every pollster we consider must meet a set of criteria before their inputs are factored into the average. These involve demonstrating accuracy in the past elections, being a part of a professional polling organization, and conducting surveys based on probability sampling. Achieving at least two out of these three conditions earns a pollster the status of a “select pollster”, granted they execute polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Further details about our approach can be found on our methodology page.
In-House Polling
In collaboration with Siena College, The Times conducts an array of polls on both state and national levels. These poll results are included in the calculation of the averages. All Times/Siena polling updates can be accessed [here].
Sources of Our Information
Polling averages are extracted from The New York Times’ comprehensive data. Meanwhile, individual polls are gathered by both The Times and FiveThirtyEight.
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